Ferroviária 2–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ferroviária

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coritiba

5/3/2025

Serie B · Round 6Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ferroviária36%

×Draw29%

Coritiba35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviáriaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.10

Ferroviária

1.13

Coritiba

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

1.05

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Ferroviária

1.05

Coritiba

1.00

allows per match

Ferroviária

1.21

Coritiba

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária+0.00on par

Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw

65%

Ferroviária or Coritiba

71%

Draw or Coritiba

64%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+

15%

Coritiba wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals

68%

Ferroviária 2+ goals

31%

Ferroviária 3+ goals

11%

Coritiba 1+ goals

67%

Coritiba 2+ goals

30%

Coritiba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)

51%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.05 + Coritiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Ferroviária defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ferroviária scores more

36%

level

29%

Coritiba scores more

35%

Ferroviária at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff