Ferroviária 1–1 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ferroviária

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avai

Thiago Lopes 42'

Cleber 6'

5/16/2025

Serie B · Round 8Arena Fonte Luminosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Ferroviária38%

×Draw27%

Avai36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviáriaExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Ferroviária

1.29

Avai

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.28

creates per match

1.02

1.48

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ferroviária

1.28

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Ferroviária

1.48

Avai

1.31

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Ferroviária-0.40scores less

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw

64%

Ferroviária or Avai

73%

Draw or Avai

62%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+

17%

Avai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals

72%

Ferroviária 2+ goals

37%

Ferroviária 3+ goals

14%

Avai 1+ goals

71%

Avai 2+ goals

36%

Avai 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)

51%

Avai (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.48 · 8 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.28 + Avai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avai attack 1.02 + Ferroviária defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ferroviária scores more

38%

level

27%

Avai scores more

36%

Ferroviária at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

Netinho

Ferroviária · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

16'

42'

46'

59'

61'

75'

75'

75'

Gaspar← Hygor

82'

Jonathan Costa

82'

Ian Luccas← Netinho

82'

Cassio Gabriel← Albano

83'

Railan← Marcos Vinicius

83'

Mendes← Marquinhos Gabriel

86'

Ronaldo← Thiago Lopes

90'

Rigley← Cleber

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerroviáriaAvai

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots10

3Corners10

5Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target2

3Off Target6

7Blocked2

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

579Total Passes276

506Accurate Passes216

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Serie B: Ferroviária 1–1 Avai

Ferroviária and Avai drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Cleber (6'), Thiago Lopes (42').

Ferroviária controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Fonte Luminosa in Araraquara.

Ferroviária vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ferroviária 1–1 Avai