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Ferroviária U20 vs São José EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
São José EC U20
São José EC U20
Pedro Estevam 69' (pen)
Vinicius Pereira 20'
Unknown 49', 36', 32'
7/11/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ferroviária U2064%
×Draw20%
São José EC U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
2.17
São José EC U20
1.01

Ferroviária U20 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
São José EC U20
1.15

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
São José EC U20
2.15

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
83%
Ferroviária U20 or São José EC U20
80%
Draw or São José EC U20
36%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
40%
São José EC U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
89%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
64%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
36%
São José EC U20 1+ goals
64%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
27%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
79%
São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
64%
level
20%
São José EC U20 scores more
17%

Ferroviária U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Vinicius Pereira
32'
36'
49'
69'
Pedro EstevamPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviária U20 2 – 3 São José EC U20

São José EC U20 beat Ferroviária U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on July 11, 2025.

Goals: Vinicius Pereira (20'), ? (32', 36', 49'), Pedro Estevam (69' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva in Taquaritinga, São Paulo.