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Ferroviária U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2024

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
Preview
18:00
Santos U20
Santos U20
7/18/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 7
Big match
44%
Ferroviária U20
model favours
44%25%31%

Santos U20 score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ferroviária U2044%
×Draw25%
Santos U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
1.52
Santos U20
1.23

Ferroviária U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.25
Santos U20
1.63

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.83
Santos U20
0.79

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
69%
Ferroviária U20 or Santos U20
75%
Draw or Santos U20
56%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
22%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
78%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
45%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
20%
Santos U20 1+ goals
71%
Santos U20 2+ goals
35%
Santos U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.25 + Santos U20 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Santos U20 attack 1.63 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
44%
level
25%
Santos U20 scores more
31%

Ferroviária U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Ferroviária U20 3 vs Santos U20 2
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 35% of Santos U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWDWW
U20
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviária U20 face Santos U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Ferroviária U20 hosting Santos U20. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.