Ferroviária U20 3–0 Portuguesa Santista U20

Ferroviária U20

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portuguesa Santista U20

A. Schilling 77'

Pedro 56'

Erick Monterio 36'

7/26/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 4Estádio Dr. Hudson Buck Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ferroviária U2069%

×Draw18%

Portuguesa Santista U2013%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviária U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa Santista U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.94

Ferroviária U20

2.36

Portuguesa Santista U20

0.94

Ferroviária U20 creates 151% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Ferroviária U20

2.20

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.00

allows per match

Ferroviária U20

0.88

Portuguesa Santista U20

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw

87%

Ferroviária U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20

82%

Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20

31%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+

46%

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals

90%

Ferroviária U20 2+ goals

68%

Ferroviária U20 3+ goals

41%

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

61%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

24%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)

84%

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.36

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more

69%

level

18%

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

13%

Ferroviária U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Erick Monterio

56'

Pedro

77'

A. Schilling

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff