Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ferroviária U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
A. da Silva 22'
Victor Gabriel 90+6'
6/27/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Dr. Francisco de Palma Travassos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ferroviária U2040%
×Draw24%
Novorizontino U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
1.56
Novorizontino U20
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
64%
Ferroviária U20 or Novorizontino U20
76%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
60%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
20%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
79%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
46%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
21%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
77%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
43%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.56

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
40%
level
24%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
36%

Ferroviária U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. da Silva
90+6'
Victor Gabriel
90+7'
Gadu
90+7'
Victor Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ferroviária U20 1–1 Novorizontino U20

Ferroviária U20 and Novorizontino U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 27, 2025.

Goals: A. da Silva (22'), Victor Gabriel (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Francisco de Palma Travassos in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.