Ferroviária U20 1–0 Jose Bonifacio EC U20

Ferroviária U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

D. Silva 32'

8/30/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 3Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ferroviária U2052%

×Draw22%

Jose Bonifacio EC U2026%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviária U20Expected goals in this matchJose Bonifacio EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.30

Ferroviária U20

1.92

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.30

Ferroviária U20 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

2.20

creates per match

1.73

0.88

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ferroviária U20

2.20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

allows per match

Ferroviária U20

0.88

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw

74%

Ferroviária U20 or Jose Bonifacio EC U20

78%

Draw or Jose Bonifacio EC U20

48%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+

29%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals

85%

Ferroviária U20 2+ goals

57%

Ferroviária U20 3+ goals

30%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

73%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

37%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more

52%

level

22%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

26%

Ferroviária U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

D. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff