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Ferroviária U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
FT
1 – 1
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
8/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 1Arena Mario Lima Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ferroviária U2050%
×Draw24%
Corinthians U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
1.71
Corinthians U20
1.17

Ferroviária U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
74%
Ferroviária U20 or Corinthians U20
76%
Draw or Corinthians U20
50%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
27%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
82%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
51%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
24%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
69%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
33%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
50%
level
24%
Corinthians U20 scores more
26%

Ferroviária U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ferroviária U20 1–1 Corinthians U20

Ferroviária U20 and Corinthians U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Mario Lima Santos in Brodowski, São Paulo.