Ferro Carril Oeste 3–0 Agropecuario: Result & Stats

Ferro Carril Oeste

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Agropecuario

8/5/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 26Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste47%

×Draw29%

Agropecuario24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril OesteExpected goals in this matchAgropecuario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.82

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.26

Agropecuario

0.82

Ferro Carril Oeste creates 54% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

1.25

creates per match

0.84

0.80

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.25

Agropecuario

0.84

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste

0.80

Agropecuario

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Agropecuario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste ↓

Agropecuario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw

76%

Ferro Carril Oeste or Agropecuario

71%

Draw or Agropecuario

53%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+

21%

Agropecuario wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals

72%

Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals

36%

Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals

13%

Agropecuario 1+ goals

56%

Agropecuario 2+ goals

20%

Agropecuario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)

66%

Agropecuario (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Agropecuario away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.25 + Agropecuario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Agropecuario attack 0.84 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more

47%

level

29%

Agropecuario scores more

24%

Ferro Carril Oeste at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff