Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Villa Mitre

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Villa Mitre

S. González 21'

M. Tunessi 26', 3'

A. Cocciarini 14'

12/1/2019

Torneo Federal A · South - 14Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres (General Pico, Provincia La Pampa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP39%

×Draw32%

Villa Mitre29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchVilla Mitre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.84

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.02

Villa Mitre

0.84

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 115 away

1.14

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.14

Villa Mitre

0.80

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Villa Mitre

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Villa Mitre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

71%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Villa Mitre

68%

Draw or Villa Mitre

61%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

15%

Villa Mitre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

64%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

27%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

8%

Villa Mitre 1+ goals

57%

Villa Mitre 2+ goals

21%

Villa Mitre 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

57%

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.88 · 85 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.14 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

39%

level

32%

Villa Mitre scores more

29%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

14'

21'

26'

60'

67'

J. Zárate← C. Herrera

70'

J. Vivani← F. Márquez

74'

G. Jara← M. Tunessi

76'

E. Scasserra← R. Formigo

80'

L. Ceratto← G. Parisi

Ferro

Villa

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Giganti

60'▲E. Morete←▼A. López

70'▲J. Vivani←▼F. Márquez

80'▲L. Ceratto←▼G. Parisi

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

MoreteVivaniCeratto

Manager: C. Mungo

67'▲J. Zárate←▼C. Herrera

74'▲G. Jara←▼M. Tunessi

76'▲E. Scasserra←▼R. Formigo

Villa Mitre substitutes

ZárateJaraScasserra

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Villa Mitre

Villa Mitre beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on December 1, 2019.

Goals: M. Tunessi (3', 26'), A. Cocciarini (14'), S. González (21').

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres (General Pico, Provincia La Pampa).

Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Villa Mitre — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Villa Mitre