Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3–1 Sportivo Desamparados

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Sportivo Desamparados

F. Vasilchik 43'

F. Heredia 30'

G. Torres 3'

B. Palazzo 19' (OG)

7/9/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 18Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP48%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Desamparados23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchSportivo Desamparados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.78

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.26

Sportivo Desamparados

0.78

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 62% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 58 away

1.16

creates per match

0.67

0.88

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.16

Sportivo Desamparados

0.67

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Sportivo Desamparados

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

77%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Sportivo Desamparados

71%

Draw or Sportivo Desamparados

52%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

22%

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

72%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

36%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

54%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

18%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

67%

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.67 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

48%

level

29%

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

23%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

G. Torres

19'

B. PalazzoOwn goal

30'

F. Heredia

34'

A. López← M. Bolteau

43'

F. Vasilchik

62'

S. Abecasis← R. Brandán

62'

P. Jofré← L. Disanto

77'

A. Ramírez← G. Torres

80'

L. Leguizamón← N. Velásquez

86'

N. Cavagnero← A. López

86'

L. Cabral← F. Vasilchik

88'

S. Ceballos← E. Décimo

Ferro

Sportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

Torres

▼

Bolteau

⚽

▼

Vasilchik

Noriega

⚽

Heredia

Manager: M. Pontiroli

34'▲A. López←▼M. Bolteau

77'▲A. Ramírez←▼G. Torres

86'▲N. Cavagnero←▼A. López

86'▲L. Cabral←▼F. Vasilchik

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

LópezRamírezCavagneroCabral

Manager: R. Dillon

62'▲S. Abecasis←▼R. Brandán

62'▲P. Jofré←▼L. Disanto

80'▲L. Leguizamón←▼N. Velásquez

88'▲S. Ceballos←▼E. Décimo

Sportivo Desamparados substitutes

AbecasisJofréLeguizamónCeballos

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Sportivo Desamparados

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Sportivo Desamparados 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on July 9, 2022.

Goals: G. Torres (3'), B. Palazzo (19' o.g.), F. Heredia (30'), F. Vasilchik (43').

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Sportivo Desamparados