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Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sansinena
Sansinena
9/25/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 31Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP45%
×Draw30%
Sansinena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.22
Sansinena
0.82

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 49% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 85 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.16
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.88
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw
75%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Sansinena
70%
Draw or Sansinena
55%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
20%
Sansinena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
70%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
34%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
12%
Sansinena 1+ goals
56%
Sansinena 2+ goals
20%
Sansinena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
65%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
45%
level
30%
Sansinena scores more
25%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2–1 Sansinena

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Sansinena 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.