Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Liniers Bahía Blanca

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Liniers Bahía Blanca

T. Fernández 4'

M. McCoubrey 90+2', 83'

A. Bulgarelli 37'

8/24/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 26Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP53%

×Draw28%

Liniers Bahía Blanca20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchLiniers Bahía Blanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.73

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.39

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.73

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 90% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

1.16

creates per match

0.58

0.88

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.16

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.58

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

80%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Liniers Bahía Blanca

72%

Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca

47%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

26%

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

75%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

40%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

16%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

52%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

17%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

73%

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

53%

level

28%

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

20%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

T. Fernández

37'

A. Bulgarelli

64'

F. Pedraza← C. Herrera

66'

S. Arellano← M. Quiroz

66'

B. Noriega← N. Cavagnero

69'

E. Narvay← F. Franzino

79'

E. Montenegro← R. Gallo

80'

M. Vidal← A. Bulgarelli

80'

M. McCoubrey← F. Lefiñir

83'

M. McCoubrey

88'

M. Loboa

90+2'

M. McCoubrey

Ferro

Liniers

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Pontiroli

66'▲S. Arellano←▼M. Quiroz

66'▲B. Noriega←▼N. Cavagnero

79'▲E. Montenegro←▼R. Gallo

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

ArellanoNoriegaMontenegro

Manager: M. Fuentes

64'▲F. Pedraza←▼C. Herrera

69'▲E. Narvay←▼F. Franzino

80'▲M. Vidal←▼A. Bulgarelli

80'▲M. McCoubrey←▼F. Lefiñir

Liniers Bahía Blanca substitutes

PedrazaNarvayVidalMcCoubrey

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Liniers Bahía Blanca

Liniers Bahía Blanca beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 24, 2022.

Goals: T. Fernández (4'), A. Bulgarelli (37'), M. McCoubrey (83', 90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Liniers Bahía Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Liniers Bahía Blanca