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Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
5/26/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 2 - 11Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP46%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Camioneros24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.25
Deportivo Camioneros
0.82

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 52% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.16
Deportivo Camioneros
0.77

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.88
Deportivo Camioneros
1.34

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw
76%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Deportivo Camioneros
71%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
54%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
71%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
36%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Camioneros attack 0.77 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
46%
level
29%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
24%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–1 Deportivo Camioneros

Ferro Carril Oeste LP and Deportivo Camioneros drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.