Ferriolense 1–1 Manacor: Result & Stats

Ferriolense

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manacor

12/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ferriolense32%

×Draw27%

Manacor41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerriolenseExpected goals in this matchManacor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.34

Ferriolense

1.14

Manacor

1.34

Manacor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 114 away

1.10

creates per match

1.34

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ferriolense

1.10

Manacor

1.34

allows per match

Ferriolense

1.34

Manacor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferriolense+0.00on par

Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferriolense ↓

Manacor →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ferriolense or draw

59%

Ferriolense or Manacor

73%

Draw or Manacor

68%

Winning margin

Ferriolense wins by 2+

13%

Manacor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ferriolense 1+ goals

68%

Ferriolense 2+ goals

32%

Ferriolense 3+ goals

11%

Manacor 1+ goals

74%

Manacor 2+ goals

39%

Manacor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ferriolense (draw refunded)

43%

Manacor (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ferriolense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ferriolense attack 1.10 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Manacor attack 1.34 + Ferriolense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ferriolense scores more

32%

level

27%

Manacor scores more

41%

Manacor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff