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Ferriolense vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Ferriolense
Ferriolense
CANC
00:00
Llosetense
Llosetense
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 29Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ferriolense34%
×Draw27%
Llosetense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferriolense
1.22
Llosetense
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 116 away

creates per match

Ferriolense
1.10
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Ferriolense
1.34
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Ferriolense+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferriolense ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ferriolense or draw
61%
Ferriolense or Llosetense
73%
Draw or Llosetense
66%

Winning margin

Ferriolense wins by 2+
14%
Llosetense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ferriolense 1+ goals
70%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
34%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
12%
Llosetense 1+ goals
74%
Llosetense 2+ goals
38%
Llosetense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ferriolense (draw refunded)
46%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferriolense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferriolense attack 1.10 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Ferriolense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ferriolense scores more
34%
level
27%
Llosetense scores more
39%

Llosetense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ferriolense host Llosetense

March 22, 2020: Ferriolense take on Llosetense in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ferriolense host Llosetense at Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.