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Ferriolense vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Ferriolense
Ferriolense
CANC
00:00
Binissalem
Binissalem
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 34Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ferriolense38%
×Draw28%
Binissalem34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferriolense
1.21
Binissalem
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ferriolense
1.10
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Ferriolense
1.34
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Ferriolense+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferriolense ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ferriolense or draw
66%
Ferriolense or Binissalem
72%
Draw or Binissalem
62%

Winning margin

Ferriolense wins by 2+
16%
Binissalem wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ferriolense 1+ goals
70%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
34%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
12%
Binissalem 1+ goals
68%
Binissalem 2+ goals
31%
Binissalem 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ferriolense (draw refunded)
53%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferriolense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferriolense attack 1.10 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Ferriolense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ferriolense scores more
38%
level
28%
Binissalem scores more
34%

Ferriolense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ferriolense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferriolense face Binissalem (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Ferriolense hosting Binissalem. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ferriolense host Binissalem at Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.