Ferreiras 0–1 Lusitano GC Évora: Result & Stats

Ferreiras

0 – 1

Lusitano GC Évora

9/9/2018

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio da Nora (Albufeira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ferreiras41%

×Draw30%

Lusitano GC Évora28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerreirasExpected goals in this matchLusitano GC Évora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.88

Ferreiras

1.13

Lusitano GC Évora

0.88

Ferreiras creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ferreiras

0.75

Lusitano GC Évora

0.75

allows per match

Ferreiras

1.00

Lusitano GC Évora

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferreiras+0.00on par

Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferreiras ↓

Lusitano GC Évora →

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ferreiras or draw

72%

Ferreiras or Lusitano GC Évora

70%

Draw or Lusitano GC Évora

59%

Winning margin

Ferreiras wins by 2+

17%

Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ferreiras 1+ goals

68%

Ferreiras 2+ goals

31%

Ferreiras 3+ goals

11%

Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals

59%

Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals

22%

Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ferreiras (draw refunded)

59%

Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ferreiras at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Lusitano GC Évora away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ferreiras attack 0.75 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lusitano GC Évora attack 0.75 + Ferreiras defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ferreiras scores more

41%

level

30%

Lusitano GC Évora scores more

28%

Ferreiras at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ferreiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff