Feronikeli 1–0 Ulpiana: Result & Stats | Superliga

Feronikeli

FT

1 – 0

Ulpiana

10/3/2021

Superliga · Round 8Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Feronikeli47%

×Draw26%

Ulpiana27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeronikeliExpected goals in this matchUlpiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.09

Feronikeli

1.51

Ulpiana

1.09

Feronikeli creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Feronikeli

1.08

Ulpiana

0.89

allows per match

Feronikeli

1.30

Ulpiana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par

Ulpiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Ulpiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw

73%

Feronikeli or Ulpiana

74%

Draw or Ulpiana

53%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+

23%

Ulpiana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals

78%

Feronikeli 2+ goals

44%

Feronikeli 3+ goals

19%

Ulpiana 1+ goals

66%

Ulpiana 2+ goals

30%

Ulpiana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)

63%

Ulpiana (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 90 matches

Ulpiana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 1.08 + Ulpiana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ulpiana attack 0.89 + Feronikeli defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Feronikeli scores more

47%

level

26%

Ulpiana scores more

27%

Feronikeli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff