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Feronikeli vs Prishtina — Superliga 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Prishtina
Prishtina
5/17/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 35Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Feronikeli31%
×Draw28%
Prishtina41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.06
Prishtina
1.25

Prishtina creates 18% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
1.08
Prishtina
1.19

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.30
Prishtina
1.03

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Prishtina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Prishtina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
59%
Feronikeli or Prishtina
72%
Draw or Prishtina
69%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
12%
Prishtina wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
65%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
29%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
9%
Prishtina 1+ goals
71%
Prishtina 2+ goals
36%
Prishtina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
44%
Prishtina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 90 matches

Prishtina away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 1.08 + Prishtina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Prishtina attack 1.19 + Feronikeli defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Feronikeli scores more
31%
level
28%
Prishtina scores more
41%

Prishtina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Feronikeli 0–1 Prishtina

Prishtina beat Feronikeli 1-0 in Superliga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi in Glogovac.