Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Feronikeli vs Malisheva — Superliga 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malisheva
Malisheva
9/29/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 7Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Feronikeli33%
×Draw27%
Malisheva40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.18
Malisheva
1.31

Malisheva creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
1.08
Malisheva
1.31

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.30
Malisheva
1.27

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
60%
Feronikeli or Malisheva
73%
Draw or Malisheva
67%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
14%
Malisheva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
69%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
33%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
12%
Malisheva 1+ goals
73%
Malisheva 2+ goals
38%
Malisheva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
46%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 90 matches

Malisheva away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 1.08 + Malisheva defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Malisheva attack 1.31 + Feronikeli defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Feronikeli scores more
33%
level
27%
Malisheva scores more
40%

Malisheva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feronikeli vs Malisheva

Feronikeli and Malisheva drew 1-1 in Superliga on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi in Glogovac.