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Feronikeli vs Malisheva — Cup 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Malisheva
Malishevaadvanced
2/3/2024CupCup · Round of 16Gllogoc Sintetik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Feronikeli24%
×Draw22%
Malisheva54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.22
Malisheva
1.93

Malisheva creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
2.00
Malisheva
2.86

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.00
Malisheva
0.43

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
46%
Feronikeli or Malisheva
78%
Draw or Malisheva
76%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
10%
Malisheva wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
70%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
34%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
12%
Malisheva 1+ goals
85%
Malisheva 2+ goals
57%
Malisheva 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
31%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Malisheva away — creates 2.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 2.00 + Malisheva defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

Malisheva attack 2.86 + Feronikeli defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Feronikeli scores more
24%
level
22%
Malisheva scores more
54%

Malisheva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Feronikeli 1–3 Malisheva

Malisheva beat Feronikeli 3-1 in Cup on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Gllogoc Sintetik in Gllogoc.