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Feronikeli vs Liria Prizren — Superliga 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
11/27/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 15Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Feronikeli53%
×Draw24%
Liria Prizren24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.71
Liria Prizren
1.06

Feronikeli creates 61% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
1.08
Liria Prizren
0.83

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.30
Liria Prizren
2.33

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
76%
Feronikeli or Liria Prizren
76%
Draw or Liria Prizren
47%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
29%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
82%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
51%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
24%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
65%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
29%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
69%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 90 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 1.08 + Liria Prizren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Liria Prizren attack 0.83 + Feronikeli defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Feronikeli scores more
53%
level
24%
Liria Prizren scores more
24%

Feronikeli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feronikeli vs Liria Prizren

Feronikeli beat Liria Prizren 2-1 in Superliga on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi in Glogovac.