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Feronikeli vs Drita — Superliga 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Drita
Drita
4/4/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 27Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Feronikeli29%
×Draw28%
Drita43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.01
Drita
1.31

Drita creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
1.08
Drita
1.31

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.30
Drita
0.94

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Drita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
57%
Feronikeli or Drita
72%
Draw or Drita
71%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
11%
Drita wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
64%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
27%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
8%
Drita 1+ goals
73%
Drita 2+ goals
38%
Drita 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
40%
Drita (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 90 matches

Drita away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 1.08 + Drita defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Drita attack 1.31 + Feronikeli defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Feronikeli scores more
29%
level
28%
Drita scores more
43%

Drita at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Feronikeli 0–1 Drita

Drita beat Feronikeli 1-0 in Superliga on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi in Glogovac.