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Fernwald vs Viktoria Griesheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Fernwald
Fernwald
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
4/1/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 29Kunstrasenplatz Fernwald-Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Fernwald58%
×Draw20%
Viktoria Griesheim22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernwald
2.25
Viktoria Griesheim
1.34

Fernwald creates 68% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

creates per match

Fernwald
2.12
Viktoria Griesheim
1.19

allows per match

Fernwald
1.50
Viktoria Griesheim
2.38

finishing

Fernwald+0.00on par
Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernwald ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fernwald or draw
78%
Fernwald or Viktoria Griesheim
80%
Draw or Viktoria Griesheim
42%

Winning margin

Fernwald wins by 2+
36%
Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fernwald 1+ goals
89%
Fernwald 2+ goals
65%
Fernwald 3+ goals
39%
Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
39%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fernwald (draw refunded)
72%
Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernwald at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernwald attack 2.12 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.25

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Fernwald defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fernwald scores more
58%
level
20%
Viktoria Griesheim scores more
22%

Fernwald at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Fernwald 2–1 Viktoria Griesheim

Fernwald beat Viktoria Griesheim 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Fernwald-Steinbach in Fernwald.