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Fernwald vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Fernwald
Fernwald
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
4/13/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 4Sportplatz Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fernwald39%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernwald
1.82
Hessen Dreieich
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fernwald
2.12
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Fernwald
1.50
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Fernwald+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernwald ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fernwald or draw
61%
Fernwald or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
61%

Winning margin

Fernwald wins by 2+
20%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fernwald 1+ goals
84%
Fernwald 2+ goals
54%
Fernwald 3+ goals
27%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
84%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
54%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Fernwald (draw refunded)
50%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernwald at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernwald attack 2.12 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Fernwald defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fernwald scores more
39%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
39%

Fernwald at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernwald vs Hessen Dreieich

Hessen Dreieich beat Fernwald 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Steinbach in Fernwald.