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Fernwald vs 1960 Hanau — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Fernwald
Fernwald
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
1960 Hanau
1960 Hanau
5/30/2026Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 34Sportplatz Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Fernwald49%
×Draw21%
1960 Hanau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernwald
2.17
1960 Hanau
1.69

Fernwald creates 28% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

creates per match

Fernwald
2.12
1960 Hanau
1.87

allows per match

Fernwald
1.50
1960 Hanau
2.23

finishing

Fernwald+0.00on par
1960 Hanau+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernwald ↓

1960 Hanau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fernwald or draw
70%
Fernwald or 1960 Hanau
79%
Draw or 1960 Hanau
51%

Winning margin

Fernwald wins by 2+
29%
1960 Hanau wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fernwald 1+ goals
89%
Fernwald 2+ goals
64%
Fernwald 3+ goals
36%
1960 Hanau 1+ goals
82%
1960 Hanau 2+ goals
50%
1960 Hanau 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fernwald (draw refunded)
62%
1960 Hanau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernwald at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

1960 Hanau away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernwald attack 2.12 + 1960 Hanau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.17

1960 Hanau attack 1.87 + Fernwald defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fernwald scores more
49%
level
21%
1960 Hanau scores more
30%

Fernwald at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernwald vs 1960 Hanau

Fernwald and 1960 Hanau drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Sportplatz Steinbach in Fernwald.