Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fernandopolis vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Fernandopolis
Fernandopolis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tupa
Tupa
Devellen 68' (pen)
Unknown 15' (OG)
G. Vieira 37'
5/12/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Cláudio Rodante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernandopolis25%
×Draw21%
Tupa53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernandopolis
1.34
Tupa
2.04

Tupa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fernandopolis
1.00
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Fernandopolis
2.60
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Fernandopolis+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernandopolis ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fernandopolis or draw
47%
Fernandopolis or Tupa
79%
Draw or Tupa
75%

Winning margin

Fernandopolis wins by 2+
11%
Tupa wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Fernandopolis 1+ goals
74%
Fernandopolis 2+ goals
39%
Fernandopolis 3+ goals
15%
Tupa 1+ goals
87%
Tupa 2+ goals
60%
Tupa 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Fernandopolis (draw refunded)
32%
Tupa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernandopolis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernandopolis attack 1.00 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tupa attack 1.47 + Fernandopolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fernandopolis scores more
25%
level
21%
Tupa scores more
53%

Tupa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Own goal
37'
G. Vieira
68'
DevellenPenalty
73'
Ale
90+10'
O. L. da Silva
90+10'
D. Sales

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernandopolis vs Tupa

Fernandopolis beat Tupa 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 12, 2024.

Goals: ? (15' o.g.), G. Vieira (37'), Devellen (68' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Cláudio Rodante in Fernandópolis, São Paulo.