Fernandopolis 3–4 Olímpia: Result & Stats

Fernandopolis

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Olímpia

Unknown 56', 44', 37'

Unknown 56', 35', 23'

I. Teixeira 7'

6/22/2024

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Cláudio Rodante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernandopolis37%

×Draw23%

Olímpia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FernandopolisExpected goals in this matchOlímpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.75

Fernandopolis

1.67

Olímpia

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

0.89

2.60

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Fernandopolis

1.00

Olímpia

0.89

allows per match

Fernandopolis

2.60

Olímpia

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernandopolis+0.00on par

Olímpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernandopolis ↓

Olímpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fernandopolis or draw

60%

Fernandopolis or Olímpia

77%

Draw or Olímpia

63%

Winning margin

Fernandopolis wins by 2+

19%

Olímpia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fernandopolis 1+ goals

81%

Fernandopolis 2+ goals

50%

Fernandopolis 3+ goals

23%

Olímpia 1+ goals

83%

Olímpia 2+ goals

52%

Olímpia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fernandopolis (draw refunded)

48%

Olímpia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernandopolis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Olímpia away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernandopolis attack 1.00 + Olímpia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Olímpia attack 0.89 + Fernandopolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fernandopolis scores more

37%

level

23%

Olímpia scores more

40%

Olímpia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olímpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

I. Teixeira

23'

35'

37'

44'

56'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff