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Fernando De La Mora vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
A. Roa 81', 60'
I. Franco 45+2', 29'
Unknown 27'
7/2/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Fernando De La Mora51%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Iteno24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernando De La Mora
1.56
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

Fernando De La Mora creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 63 away

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.31
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora
0.99
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw
76%
Fernando De La Mora or Sportivo Iteno
75%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
49%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
26%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
79%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
46%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
62%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
68%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more
51%
level
25%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
24%

Fernando De La Mora at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
29'
I. Franco
45+2'
I. Franco
60'
A. Roa
81'
A. Roa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernando De La Mora vs Sportivo Iteno

Fernando De La Mora beat Sportivo Iteno 4-1 in Division Intermedia on July 2, 2022.

Goals: ? (27'), I. Franco (29', 45+2'), A. Roa (60', 81').

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi in Fernando de la Mora.