Fernando De La Mora 2–0 Pastoreo: Result & Stats

Fernando De La Mora

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pastoreo

9/26/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fernando De La Mora40%

×Draw27%

Pastoreo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernando De La MoraExpected goals in this matchPastoreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.12

Fernando De La Mora

1.29

Pastoreo

1.12

Fernando De La Mora creates 15% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 60 away

1.31

creates per match

1.25

0.99

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora

1.31

Pastoreo

1.25

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora

0.99

Pastoreo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Pastoreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw

68%

Fernando De La Mora or Pastoreo

73%

Draw or Pastoreo

60%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

18%

Pastoreo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

72%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

37%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

14%

Pastoreo 1+ goals

67%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

31%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

56%

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more

40%

level

27%

Pastoreo scores more

32%

Fernando De La Mora at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Fernando De La Mora 2–0 Pastoreo

Fernando De La Mora beat Pastoreo 2-0 in Division Intermedia on September 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi in Fernando de la Mora.

Fernando De La Mora vs Pastoreo — Division Intermedia 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Division Intermedia: Fernando De La Mora 2–0 Pastoreo