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Fernando De La Mora vs Guaraní de Fram — Division Intermedia 2020

Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
D. Acosta 90+3'
9/6/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fernando De La Mora45%
×Draw28%
Guaraní de Fram27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernando De La Mora
1.33
Guaraní de Fram
0.95

Fernando De La Mora creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.20
Guaraní de Fram
0.87

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.02
Guaraní de Fram
1.47

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par
Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Guaraní de Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw
73%
Fernando De La Mora or Guaraní de Fram
72%
Draw or Guaraní de Fram
55%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
21%
Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
74%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
38%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
15%
Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
61%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
25%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
63%
Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.02 · 85 matches

Guaraní de Fram away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.20 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Guaraní de Fram attack 0.87 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more
45%
level
28%
Guaraní de Fram scores more
27%

Fernando De La Mora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'
D. Acosta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernando De La Mora vs Guaraní de Fram

Fernando De La Mora beat Guaraní de Fram 1-0 in Division Intermedia on September 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Acosta (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi in Asunción.