Fernando De La Mora 1–1 Encarnación: Result & Stats

Fernando De La Mora

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Encarnación

A. Cino 17'

B. Diaz 56'

6/21/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fernando De La Mora49%

×Draw25%

Encarnación26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernando De La MoraExpected goals in this matchEncarnación

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.07

Fernando De La Mora

1.58

Encarnación

1.07

Fernando De La Mora creates 48% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 38 away

1.36

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora

1.36

Encarnación

1.11

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora

1.03

Encarnación

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Encarnación+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Encarnación →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw

74%

Fernando De La Mora or Encarnación

75%

Draw or Encarnación

51%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

25%

Encarnación wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

79%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

47%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

21%

Encarnación 1+ goals

66%

Encarnación 2+ goals

29%

Encarnación 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

66%

Encarnación (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Encarnación away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.36 + Encarnación defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Encarnación attack 1.11 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more

49%

level

25%

Encarnación scores more

26%

Fernando De La Mora at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Cino

56'

B. Diaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff