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Fernando De La Mora vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
FT
1 – 2
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
4/7/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Emilio Ghezzi (Fernando de la Mora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fernando De La Mora55%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Caaguazu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernando De La Mora
1.62
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.86

Fernando De La Mora creates 88% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.31
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora
0.99
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw
80%
Fernando De La Mora or Deportivo Caaguazu
75%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
45%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
80%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
48%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
74%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more
55%
level
25%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
20%

Fernando De La Mora at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Fernando De La Mora 1–2 Deportivo Caaguazu

Deportivo Caaguazu beat Fernando De La Mora 2-1 in Division Intermedia on April 7, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Emilio Ghezzi (Fernando de la Mora).