Fernández Vial 1–1 Universidad de Chile

Fernández Vial

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad de Chile

7/4/2021

Copa Chile · Round of 16Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernández Vial22%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Chile53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernández VialExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.60

Fernández Vial

0.95

Universidad de Chile

1.60

Universidad de Chile creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

0.80

creates per match

2.60

0.60

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fernández Vial

0.80

Universidad de Chile

2.60

allows per match

Fernández Vial

0.60

Universidad de Chile

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw

47%

Fernández Vial or Universidad de Chile

75%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

78%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

8%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

61%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

25%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

7%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

80%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

47%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

30%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 0.80 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Universidad de Chile attack 2.60 + Fernández Vial defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fernández Vial scores more

22%

level

25%

Universidad de Chile scores more

53%

Universidad de Chile at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff