Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fernández Vial vs Union San Felipe — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
10/28/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 10Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial41%
×Draw27%
Union San Felipe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.31
Union San Felipe
1.13

Fernández Vial creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 122 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
Union San Felipe
1.00

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
Union San Felipe
1.55

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Union San Felipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
68%
Fernández Vial or Union San Felipe
73%
Draw or Union San Felipe
59%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
18%
Union San Felipe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
73%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
38%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
14%
Union San Felipe 1+ goals
68%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
31%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
56%
Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + Union San Felipe defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Union San Felipe attack 1.00 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
41%
level
27%
Union San Felipe scores more
32%

Fernández Vial at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Fernández Vial 1–3 Union San Felipe

Union San Felipe beat Fernández Vial 3-1 in Primera B on October 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Bernardo.