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Fernández Vial vs San Marcos de Arica — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
San Marcos de Arica
San Marcos de Arica
9/6/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial37%
×Draw28%
San Marcos de Arica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.23
San Marcos de Arica
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 91 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
San Marcos de Arica
1.11

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
San Marcos de Arica
1.41

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

San Marcos de Arica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
65%
Fernández Vial or San Marcos de Arica
72%
Draw or San Marcos de Arica
63%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
16%
San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
71%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
35%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
13%
San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals
70%
San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals
33%
San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
51%
San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.11 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
37%
level
28%
San Marcos de Arica scores more
35%

Fernández Vial at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fernández Vial 1 – 2 San Marcos de Arica

San Marcos de Arica beat Fernández Vial 2-1 in Primera B on September 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.