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Fernández Vial vs San Luis — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
San Luis
San Luis
9/22/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 21Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial40%
×Draw27%
San Luis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.28
San Luis
1.14

Fernández Vial creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 111 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
San Luis
1.01

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
San Luis
1.50

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
67%
Fernández Vial or San Luis
73%
Draw or San Luis
60%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
18%
San Luis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
72%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
37%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
14%
San Luis 1+ goals
68%
San Luis 2+ goals
32%
San Luis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
55%
San Luis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

San Luis attack 1.01 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
40%
level
27%
San Luis scores more
33%

Fernández Vial at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Fernández Vial 2–2 San Luis

Fernández Vial and San Luis drew 2-2 in Primera B on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.