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Fernández Vial vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
4/19/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fernández Vial48%
×Draw27%
Real San Joaquín25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.45
Real San Joaquín
0.97

Fernández Vial creates 49% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.11
Real San Joaquín
0.95

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.00
Real San Joaquín
1.78

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Real San Joaquín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
75%
Fernández Vial or Real San Joaquín
73%
Draw or Real San Joaquín
52%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
24%
Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
77%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
42%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
18%
Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
62%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
25%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
66%
Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
48%
level
27%
Real San Joaquín scores more
25%

Fernández Vial at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fernández Vial 0–0 Real San Joaquín

Fernández Vial and Real San Joaquín drew 0-0 in Segunda División on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.