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Fernández Vial vs O'Higgins — Copa Chile 2019

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
O'Higgins
O'Higgins
6/19/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · 3rd RoundEstadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernández Vial41%
×Draw31%
O'Higgins28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.08
O'Higgins
0.83

Fernández Vial creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
0.80
O'Higgins
1.07

allows per match

Fernández Vial
0.60
O'Higgins
1.36

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

O'Higgins →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
72%
Fernández Vial or O'Higgins
69%
Draw or O'Higgins
59%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
17%
O'Higgins wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
66%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
29%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
10%
O'Higgins 1+ goals
56%
O'Higgins 2+ goals
20%
O'Higgins 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
60%
O'Higgins (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 0.80 + O'Higgins defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

O'Higgins attack 1.07 + Fernández Vial defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
41%
level
31%
O'Higgins scores more
28%

Fernández Vial at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: Fernández Vial 1–0 O'Higgins

Fernández Vial beat O'Higgins 1-0 in Copa Chile on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.