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Fernández Vial vs Deportes Valdivia — Segunda División 2020

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
10/2/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 24Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fernández Vial41%
×Draw28%
Deportes Valdivia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.25
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

Fernández Vial creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.11
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.00
Deportes Valdivia
1.40

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
69%
Fernández Vial or Deportes Valdivia
72%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
59%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
18%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
71%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
36%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
13%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
65%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
29%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
56%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
41%
level
28%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
31%

Fernández Vial at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fernández Vial 1 – 0 Deportes Valdivia

Fernández Vial beat Deportes Valdivia 1-0 in Segunda División on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.