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Fernández Vial vs Deportes Temuco — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Temuco
Deportes Temuco
7/31/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 22Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial37%
×Draw28%
Deportes Temuco35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.20
Deportes Temuco
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
Deportes Temuco
1.07

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
Deportes Temuco
1.33

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Deportes Temuco+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Deportes Temuco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
65%
Fernández Vial or Deportes Temuco
72%
Draw or Deportes Temuco
63%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
16%
Deportes Temuco wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
70%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
34%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
12%
Deportes Temuco 1+ goals
69%
Deportes Temuco 2+ goals
33%
Deportes Temuco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
51%
Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Deportes Temuco away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + Deportes Temuco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportes Temuco attack 1.07 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
37%
level
28%
Deportes Temuco scores more
35%

Fernández Vial at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernández Vial vs Deportes Temuco

Fernández Vial and Deportes Temuco drew 0-0 in Primera B on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.