Fernández Vial 0–1 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Fernández Vial

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Limache

5/28/2023

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fernández Vial34%

×Draw30%

Deportes Limache36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernández VialExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.08

Fernández Vial

1.04

Deportes Limache

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

1.11

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Fernández Vial

1.11

Deportes Limache

1.17

allows per match

Fernández Vial

1.00

Deportes Limache

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw

64%

Fernández Vial or Deportes Limache

70%

Draw or Deportes Limache

66%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

13%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

65%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

28%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

9%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

66%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

29%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

49%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportes Limache attack 1.17 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fernández Vial scores more

34%

level

30%

Deportes Limache scores more

36%

Deportes Limache at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff