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Fernández Vial vs Deportes Copiapo — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
9/25/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 29Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial36%
×Draw28%
Deportes Copiapo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.18
Deportes Copiapo
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 94 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
Deportes Copiapo
1.11

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
Deportes Copiapo
1.30

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Deportes Copiapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
64%
Fernández Vial or Deportes Copiapo
72%
Draw or Deportes Copiapo
64%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
15%
Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
69%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
33%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
12%
Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
70%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
33%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
50%
Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Deportes Copiapo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.11 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
36%
level
28%
Deportes Copiapo scores more
36%

Fernández Vial at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Fernández Vial 1–2 Deportes Copiapo

Deportes Copiapo beat Fernández Vial 2-1 in Primera B on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.