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Fernández Vial vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Concón National
Concón National
10/20/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial36%
×Draw26%
Concón National38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.29
Concón National
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.11
Concón National
1.65

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.00
Concón National
1.48

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Concón National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
62%
Fernández Vial or Concón National
74%
Draw or Concón National
64%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
16%
Concón National wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
72%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
37%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
14%
Concón National 1+ goals
73%
Concón National 2+ goals
38%
Concón National 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
49%
Concón National (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Concón National attack 1.65 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
36%
level
26%
Concón National scores more
38%

Concón National at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernández Vial vs Concón National

Concón National beat Fernández Vial 3-1 in Segunda División on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.