Fernández Vial 1–1 Concepción: Result & Stats

Fernández Vial

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Concepción

4/7/2023

Copa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernández Vial52%

×Draw26%

Concepción21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernández VialExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.85

Fernández Vial

1.50

Concepción

0.85

Fernández Vial creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

0.80

creates per match

1.10

0.60

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Fernández Vial

0.80

Concepción

1.10

allows per match

Fernández Vial

0.60

Concepción

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw

79%

Fernández Vial or Concepción

74%

Draw or Concepción

48%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

27%

Concepción wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

78%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

44%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

19%

Concepción 1+ goals

57%

Concepción 2+ goals

21%

Concepción 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

71%

Concepción (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 0.80 + Concepción defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Concepción attack 1.10 + Fernández Vial defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fernández Vial scores more

52%

level

26%

Concepción scores more

21%

Fernández Vial at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff