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Fernández Vial vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
5/15/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 15Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial39%
×Draw27%
Barnechea34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.29
Barnechea
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 95 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
66%
Fernández Vial or Barnechea
73%
Draw or Barnechea
61%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
17%
Barnechea wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
72%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
37%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
14%
Barnechea 1+ goals
69%
Barnechea 2+ goals
33%
Barnechea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
54%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
39%
level
27%
Barnechea scores more
34%

Fernández Vial at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fernández Vial 0 – 1 Barnechea

Barnechea beat Fernández Vial 1-0 in Primera B on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.