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Ferlach vs SAK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Ferlach
Ferlach
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
11/2/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 15Sportplatz Ferlach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Ferlach43%
×Draw24%
SAK Klagenfurt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferlach
1.64
SAK Klagenfurt
1.41

Ferlach creates 16% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ferlach
1.79
SAK Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

Ferlach
1.46
SAK Klagenfurt
1.48

finishing

Ferlach+0.00on par
SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferlach ↓

SAK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ferlach or draw
67%
Ferlach or SAK Klagenfurt
76%
Draw or SAK Klagenfurt
57%

Winning margin

Ferlach wins by 2+
22%
SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ferlach 1+ goals
81%
Ferlach 2+ goals
49%
Ferlach 3+ goals
23%
SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
76%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
41%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ferlach (draw refunded)
57%
SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferlach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

SAK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferlach attack 1.79 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + Ferlach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ferlach scores more
43%
level
24%
SAK Klagenfurt scores more
33%

Ferlach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ferlach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferlach vs SAK Klagenfurt

Ferlach beat SAK Klagenfurt 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ferlach in Ferlach.