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Ferlach vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Ferlach
Ferlach
FT
1 – 3
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
3/18/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21Sportplatz Ferlach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ferlach54%
×Draw21%
Maria Saal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferlach
2.16
Maria Saal
1.44

Ferlach creates 50% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ferlach
1.79
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Ferlach
1.46
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Ferlach+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferlach ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ferlach or draw
75%
Ferlach or Maria Saal
79%
Draw or Maria Saal
46%

Winning margin

Ferlach wins by 2+
32%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ferlach 1+ goals
88%
Ferlach 2+ goals
63%
Ferlach 3+ goals
36%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
76%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
42%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ferlach (draw refunded)
68%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferlach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferlach attack 1.79 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.16

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Ferlach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ferlach scores more
54%
level
21%
Maria Saal scores more
25%

Ferlach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ferlach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferlach vs Maria Saal

Maria Saal beat Ferlach 3-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ferlach in Ferlach.