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Ferlach vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Ferlach
Ferlach
FT
1 – 2
Kraig
Kraig
9/19/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 8Sportplatz Ferlach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Ferlach54%
×Draw22%
Kraig24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferlach
1.99
Kraig
1.26

Ferlach creates 58% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 63 away

creates per match

Ferlach
1.79
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

Ferlach
1.46
Kraig
2.19

finishing

Ferlach+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferlach ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ferlach or draw
76%
Ferlach or Kraig
78%
Draw or Kraig
46%

Winning margin

Ferlach wins by 2+
32%
Kraig wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ferlach 1+ goals
86%
Ferlach 2+ goals
59%
Ferlach 3+ goals
32%
Kraig 1+ goals
72%
Kraig 2+ goals
36%
Kraig 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ferlach (draw refunded)
69%
Kraig (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferlach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferlach attack 1.79 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kraig attack 1.06 + Ferlach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ferlach scores more
54%
level
22%
Kraig scores more
24%

Ferlach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ferlach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Ferlach 1–2 Kraig

Kraig beat Ferlach 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ferlach in Ferlach.